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Survive today, but tomorrow?


Do you know what is the most important global risk of the next 2 years? Cost of living crisis. In other words, the economic cost of meeting basic needs has risen dramatically, and it has spread globally to include the majority thus become a huge risk. 

Well, what do you think of the other 2 most important global risks following this? Natural disasters, extreme weather events and geoeconomic conflict.

Geoeconomic conflict, the weaponization of economic policy among global powers, expresses the vulnerabilities posed by commercial, financial and technological interdependence for both the public and private sectors.

The environment created by the epidemic and subsequent war causes the economic policy to be more and more directed towards geopolitical targets, especially in developed countries. With supply chains broken and ‘sacred’ globalization ravaged, countries have begun to tighten their defenses to boost local production and minimize foreign interference in critical sectors. These include tougher measures such as tighter investment screening, data localization policies, visa bans and exclusion of companies from key markets. In other words, each sheep takes the necessary measures to hang from its ‘economic leg’.

Is it possible to prepare for long-term risks?

The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report contains data and analysis that will be discussed and discussed a lot. It also offers valuable predictions for the short and long-term landscape it reveals.

While issues such as the economic situation, high inflation, declining household income, and the difficulty of meeting even basic vital needs such as heating due to the energy crisis determine the daily life system, disasters created by extraordinary natural conditions are an extra burden on these difficult living conditions.

We are in a critical situation. As we combat these ongoing shocks, we need to take firm steps today to manage long-term risks. As we enter a period of low growth, low investment and low cooperation, the steps we take today will determine our future risk environment. We must make sure that addressing current crises does not distort the long-term perspective.

Climate change and related crises constitute the weight of the global risks of the next 10 years:

Inability to mitigate climate change, failure of adaptation, natural disasters and extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, large-scale forced migrations, natural resource crises…

Short-term risks are in fact steadily eroding economic, educational and health gains in much of the world. This in turn interacts with numerous long-term environmental and geopolitical risks to further threaten the security and stability of societies around the world.

The world faces a series of risks that are both entirely new and frighteningly familiar. The cost of living will dominate global risks in the next two years, while the failure of climate action will be the dominant risk of the next decade.

The pains of economic development, the unlimited development of civil and military technologies, and the growing pressure on climate change in the ever-shrinking window will bring us uncertain and turbulent years.

Risks from cybersecurity will remain a constant concern as technology exacerbates inequalities.

Current crises prevent resources from being used for long-term risks. If a significant policy change or investment is not made in this regard; Issues such as the effects of climate change, loss of biodiversity, food security will accelerate the collapse of the entire ecosystem. Thus, it will threaten the food supply and livelihoods, especially in climate-vulnerable economies. This will amplify the effects of natural disasters and limit further progress in tackling the climate crisis.

Survive today, what about tomorrow?

The global risks defined for the short term of 2 years show that humanity is in a very clear ‘survival mode’. Issues such as climate crisis, transformation and biodiversity are only listed in a 10-year perspective. In other words, although humanity does not want to express it openly, it first thinks of surviving in these conditions today, and then ‘looking after‘! If there’s anything left to look back on for later…

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